Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 14 2021 10856 46849 347 104 184 302
February 15 2021 10867 46932 347 104 160 284
February 16 2021 10871 47026 347 104 128 274
February 17 2021 10884 47107 348 104 117 247
February 18 2021 10895 47223 351 104 113 223
February 19 2021 10906 47315 351 104 118 199
February 20 2021 10923 47417 351 104 125 180
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.9 8.8% 11 0.1% 15 0.13%
10-19 4 2.6 15.2% 19 0.14% 24 0.18%
20-29 6 3.3 27.2% 34 0.16% 49 0.23%
30-39 0 1.4 12% 15 0.11% 23 0.17%
40-49 3 0.9 4.8% 6 0.06% 11 0.11%
50-59 1 1.1 12% 15 0.12% 22 0.18%
60-69 0 1.0 10.4% 13 0.11% 17 0.15%
70+ 2 1.1 9.6% 12 0.11% 19 0.18%
All ages 17 12.3 100% 125 0.12% 180 0.17%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 14 2021 6971 27601 214 88 91 140
February 15 2021 6970 27624 215 89 74 129
February 16 2021 6976 27670 215 90 66 135
February 17 2021 6984 27715 216 90 66 113
February 18 2021 6989 27758 216 90 64 110
February 19 2021 6993 27804 216 90 63 97
February 20 2021 7000 27847 218 90 60 90
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 -2 -0.1 1.5% 1 0.01% 2 0.03%
10-19 4 1.1 19.1% 13 0.15% 18 0.21%
20-29 0 0.7 14.7% 10 0.14% 18 0.25%
30-39 0 0.7 14.7% 10 0.12% 11 0.13%
40-49 0 1.3 19.1% 13 0.17% 19 0.24%
50-59 2 0.9 16.2% 11 0.11% 15 0.15%
60-69 1 0.6 5.9% 4 0.05% 7 0.08%
70+ 2 0.4 8.8% 6 0.08% 8 0.11%
All ages 7 5.6 100% 68 0.11% 98 0.15%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 14 2021 5245 18376 228 74 82 111
February 15 2021 5254 18388 230 74 75 120
February 16 2021 5256 18409 230 74 73 121
February 17 2021 5267 18448 231 74 79 120
February 18 2021 5270 18477 231 75 78 107
February 19 2021 5282 18508 231 75 87 103
February 20 2021 5295 18530 231 75 90 112
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.9 8.9% 8 0.15% 10 0.18%
10-19 1 0.9 11.1% 10 0.18% 16 0.29%
20-29 3 1.3 13.3% 12 0.27% 14 0.31%
30-39 2 0.7 5.6% 5 0.09% 8 0.15%
40-49 1 0.7 11.1% 10 0.2% 11 0.22%
50-59 3 1.9 18.9% 17 0.25% 19 0.28%
60-69 1 0.6 13.3% 12 0.19% 15 0.24%
70+ 1 1.6 17.8% 16 0.25% 19 0.3%
All ages 13 8.4 100% 90 0.2% 112 0.25%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 14 2021 12027 50826 340 75 184 299
February 15 2021 12034 50893 341 75 165 281
February 16 2021 12059 51029 343 75 166 285
February 17 2021 12086 51153 348 75 181 271
February 18 2021 12093 51273 348 75 175 250
February 19 2021 12115 51411 348 75 170 246
February 20 2021 12124 51518 350 75 145 231
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.1 8.3% 12 0.1% 16 0.14%
10-19 2 3.1 16.6% 24 0.14% 43 0.26%
20-29 2 2.7 15.9% 23 0.11% 35 0.16%
30-39 4 2.6 17.2% 25 0.18% 40 0.29%
40-49 1 1.9 12.4% 18 0.13% 30 0.22%
50-59 1 1.4 9.7% 14 0.1% 24 0.17%
60-69 -1 1.0 7.6% 11 0.08% 19 0.13%
70+ 0 2.1 12.4% 18 0.14% 24 0.18%
All ages 9 16.0 100% 145 0.12% 231 0.2%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 14 2021 39270 317224 1193 264 898 1321
February 15 2021 39317 317583 1193 264 830 1297
February 16 2021 39346 317359 1194 264 758 1261
February 17 2021 39440 317483 1196 264 771 1276
February 18 2021 39584 317772 1197 267 816 1212
February 19 2021 39744 318193 1204 268 937 1257
February 20 2021 39861 318659 1209 267 955 1273
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 8 4.1 4.4% 42 0.07% 52 0.09%
10-19 29 28.3 28.7% 274 0.39% 359 0.51%
20-29 29 33.7 34.5% 329 0.32% 435 0.42%
30-39 16 10.3 10.9% 104 0.14% 144 0.19%
40-49 10 4.6 7.5% 72 0.11% 101 0.15%
50-59 11 5.4 6.7% 64 0.1% 93 0.14%
60-69 4 3.6 3.9% 37 0.07% 44 0.08%
70+ 10 2.7 3.5% 33 0.07% 45 0.09%
All ages 117 92.7 100% 955 0.17% 1273 0.23%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 14 2021 555303 2564523 25302 6162 8348 12888
February 15 2021 555708 2568204 25340 6166 7487 12543
February 16 2021 556332 2570798 25422 6204 7177 12072
February 17 2021 556989 2575026 25498 6214 7163 11552
February 18 2021 557722 2579840 25556 6232 7353 10767
February 19 2021 558496 2584375 25635 6267 7446 10275
February 20 2021 559172 2588501 25716 6284 7301 10017
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 42 37.4 6.1% 449 0.07% 615 0.1%
10-19 128 108.6 16.2% 1185 0.16% 1599 0.21%
20-29 103 105.4 16.6% 1214 0.16% 1664 0.22%
30-39 112 91.1 14.5% 1059 0.14% 1453 0.19%
40-49 82 79.7 13.2% 966 0.14% 1298 0.19%
50-59 105 86.4 14.2% 1037 0.13% 1461 0.18%
60-69 55 63.6 10.4% 759 0.1% 1041 0.14%
70+ 49 52.3 8.7% 632 0.1% 886 0.14%
All ages 676 624.6 100% 7301 0.13% 10017 0.17%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
17.2 17.6 23.4 12.3 27.3 11.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
15.2 4.4 12.7 12.4%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
24.8 8.4 8.6 24.9%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
19.5 26 16.4 16 24.4 12.8%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
23.3 50.5 41.9 92.7 103.1 27%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
17.2 21.1 22 624.6 970 13.6%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.63 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5371"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red