Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 14 2021 | 10856 | 46849 | 347 | 104 | 184 | 302 |
| February 15 2021 | 10867 | 46932 | 347 | 104 | 160 | 284 |
| February 16 2021 | 10871 | 47026 | 347 | 104 | 128 | 274 |
| February 17 2021 | 10884 | 47107 | 348 | 104 | 117 | 247 |
| February 18 2021 | 10895 | 47223 | 351 | 104 | 113 | 223 |
| February 19 2021 | 10906 | 47315 | 351 | 104 | 118 | 199 |
| February 20 2021 | 10923 | 47417 | 351 | 104 | 125 | 180 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.9 | 8.8% | 11 | 0.1% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 2.6 | 15.2% | 19 | 0.14% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 3.3 | 27.2% | 34 | 0.16% | 49 | 0.23% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.4 | 12% | 15 | 0.11% | 23 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 0.9 | 4.8% | 6 | 0.06% | 11 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.1 | 12% | 15 | 0.12% | 22 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.0 | 10.4% | 13 | 0.11% | 17 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.1 | 9.6% | 12 | 0.11% | 19 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 17 | 12.3 | 100% | 125 | 0.12% | 180 | 0.17% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 14 2021 | 6971 | 27601 | 214 | 88 | 91 | 140 |
| February 15 2021 | 6970 | 27624 | 215 | 89 | 74 | 129 |
| February 16 2021 | 6976 | 27670 | 215 | 90 | 66 | 135 |
| February 17 2021 | 6984 | 27715 | 216 | 90 | 66 | 113 |
| February 18 2021 | 6989 | 27758 | 216 | 90 | 64 | 110 |
| February 19 2021 | 6993 | 27804 | 216 | 90 | 63 | 97 |
| February 20 2021 | 7000 | 27847 | 218 | 90 | 60 | 90 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -2 | -0.1 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 1.1 | 19.1% | 13 | 0.15% | 18 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.7 | 14.7% | 10 | 0.14% | 18 | 0.25% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 14.7% | 10 | 0.12% | 11 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.3 | 19.1% | 13 | 0.17% | 19 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 0.9 | 16.2% | 11 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 5.9% | 4 | 0.05% | 7 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 2 | 0.4 | 8.8% | 6 | 0.08% | 8 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 7 | 5.6 | 100% | 68 | 0.11% | 98 | 0.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 14 2021 | 5245 | 18376 | 228 | 74 | 82 | 111 |
| February 15 2021 | 5254 | 18388 | 230 | 74 | 75 | 120 |
| February 16 2021 | 5256 | 18409 | 230 | 74 | 73 | 121 |
| February 17 2021 | 5267 | 18448 | 231 | 74 | 79 | 120 |
| February 18 2021 | 5270 | 18477 | 231 | 75 | 78 | 107 |
| February 19 2021 | 5282 | 18508 | 231 | 75 | 87 | 103 |
| February 20 2021 | 5295 | 18530 | 231 | 75 | 90 | 112 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.9 | 8.9% | 8 | 0.15% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.9 | 11.1% | 10 | 0.18% | 16 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 1.3 | 13.3% | 12 | 0.27% | 14 | 0.31% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 0.7 | 5.6% | 5 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.7 | 11.1% | 10 | 0.2% | 11 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 1.9 | 18.9% | 17 | 0.25% | 19 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 13.3% | 12 | 0.19% | 15 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.6 | 17.8% | 16 | 0.25% | 19 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 13 | 8.4 | 100% | 90 | 0.2% | 112 | 0.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 14 2021 | 12027 | 50826 | 340 | 75 | 184 | 299 |
| February 15 2021 | 12034 | 50893 | 341 | 75 | 165 | 281 |
| February 16 2021 | 12059 | 51029 | 343 | 75 | 166 | 285 |
| February 17 2021 | 12086 | 51153 | 348 | 75 | 181 | 271 |
| February 18 2021 | 12093 | 51273 | 348 | 75 | 175 | 250 |
| February 19 2021 | 12115 | 51411 | 348 | 75 | 170 | 246 |
| February 20 2021 | 12124 | 51518 | 350 | 75 | 145 | 231 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.1 | 8.3% | 12 | 0.1% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 3.1 | 16.6% | 24 | 0.14% | 43 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.7 | 15.9% | 23 | 0.11% | 35 | 0.16% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.6 | 17.2% | 25 | 0.18% | 40 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.9 | 12.4% | 18 | 0.13% | 30 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.4 | 9.7% | 14 | 0.1% | 24 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | -1 | 1.0 | 7.6% | 11 | 0.08% | 19 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.1 | 12.4% | 18 | 0.14% | 24 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 9 | 16.0 | 100% | 145 | 0.12% | 231 | 0.2% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 14 2021 | 39270 | 317224 | 1193 | 264 | 898 | 1321 |
| February 15 2021 | 39317 | 317583 | 1193 | 264 | 830 | 1297 |
| February 16 2021 | 39346 | 317359 | 1194 | 264 | 758 | 1261 |
| February 17 2021 | 39440 | 317483 | 1196 | 264 | 771 | 1276 |
| February 18 2021 | 39584 | 317772 | 1197 | 267 | 816 | 1212 |
| February 19 2021 | 39744 | 318193 | 1204 | 268 | 937 | 1257 |
| February 20 2021 | 39861 | 318659 | 1209 | 267 | 955 | 1273 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 4.1 | 4.4% | 42 | 0.07% | 52 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 29 | 28.3 | 28.7% | 274 | 0.39% | 359 | 0.51% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 33.7 | 34.5% | 329 | 0.32% | 435 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 10.3 | 10.9% | 104 | 0.14% | 144 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 4.6 | 7.5% | 72 | 0.11% | 101 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 5.4 | 6.7% | 64 | 0.1% | 93 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.6 | 3.9% | 37 | 0.07% | 44 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 10 | 2.7 | 3.5% | 33 | 0.07% | 45 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 117 | 92.7 | 100% | 955 | 0.17% | 1273 | 0.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 14 2021 | 555303 | 2564523 | 25302 | 6162 | 8348 | 12888 |
| February 15 2021 | 555708 | 2568204 | 25340 | 6166 | 7487 | 12543 |
| February 16 2021 | 556332 | 2570798 | 25422 | 6204 | 7177 | 12072 |
| February 17 2021 | 556989 | 2575026 | 25498 | 6214 | 7163 | 11552 |
| February 18 2021 | 557722 | 2579840 | 25556 | 6232 | 7353 | 10767 |
| February 19 2021 | 558496 | 2584375 | 25635 | 6267 | 7446 | 10275 |
| February 20 2021 | 559172 | 2588501 | 25716 | 6284 | 7301 | 10017 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 42 | 37.4 | 6.1% | 449 | 0.07% | 615 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 128 | 108.6 | 16.2% | 1185 | 0.16% | 1599 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 103 | 105.4 | 16.6% | 1214 | 0.16% | 1664 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 112 | 91.1 | 14.5% | 1059 | 0.14% | 1453 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 82 | 79.7 | 13.2% | 966 | 0.14% | 1298 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 105 | 86.4 | 14.2% | 1037 | 0.13% | 1461 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 55 | 63.6 | 10.4% | 759 | 0.1% | 1041 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 49 | 52.3 | 8.7% | 632 | 0.1% | 886 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 676 | 624.6 | 100% | 7301 | 0.13% | 10017 | 0.17% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.2 | 17.6 | 23.4 | 12.3 | 27.3 | 11.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.2 | 4.4 | 12.7 | 12.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.8 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 24.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 26 | 16.4 | 16 | 24.4 | 12.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.3 | 50.5 | 41.9 | 92.7 | 103.1 | 27% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.2 | 21.1 | 22 | 624.6 | 970 | 13.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.63 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5371"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges